Why 50% of Travel Companies Could Disappear in the AI Era

The AI Crossroads: A Strategic Guide for African Safari Travel Companies
 

This article isn’t written to instill fear, but to inspire clear thinking among safari travel executives. We care deeply about Africa and believe in tourism as a force for good for our continent. We have seen firsthand how visiting Africa can change people's lives for the better. This perspective is drawn from our collective experience in technology, strategy consulting, and specifically, our work advising African travel companies on AI automation, system development, and AI strategy.

It’s Not About AI, It’s About Good Business

VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) is an acronym that has only grown in relevance as AI flips industries and job roles on their head. While strategy has many fancy frameworks, we believe in simplification. The core reason one company succeeds while another fails often comes down to good management. And in our modern era, adaptability to change is the cornerstone of good management.

Navigating the current AI landscape—and keeping up with its weekly advancements—is like experiencing the digitisation of the 2000s at an accelerated pace, but compressed into a fraction of the time. It is overwhelming, demanding, and often confusing. However, these are not justifiable reasons for inaction. The right action, taken now, will determine who wins and who loses. One thing is clearer than ever: approaching AI implementation requires a blend of strategic rigour and constant experimentation to ensure a sustainable impact.

Sharpening the Axe Before You Swing

While the technology is new, the foundational principles of successful transformation remain unchanged: clarity on the "why," sound planning, risk management, measurement, and proper change management. Of these, clarity is the most critical. When there is a buzz around a new technology, companies often experience FOMO (fear of missing out) and jump to action without a clear purpose. This can lead to "technical debt" or "sunk costs." As the proverb says, "If the axe is dull and one does not sharpen the edge, then one must use more strength."

The tricky part with AI is that experimentation is a core part of the axe-sharpening process. Due to the nascent nature of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their applications, there are few tried-and-tested systems in the African travel niche. Most companies are hesitant to share where they are using AI and are certainly unwilling to share their failed experiments. It’s a common pattern for many to wait for innovative players to take the leap, and then copy what appears to be working.

AI Risks for SMEs and Incumbents
 

In our experience, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and large incumbents are the two groups most at risk, but for very different reasons.

The owner-operated SME often has the best travel products but struggles with operational efficiency, failing to prioritise system improvements. Conversely, larger travel companies have established operations, but they are often not as efficient as they could be. To truly benefit from AI, these organisations require significant process redesign and system modernisation. Some of their processes are deeply complex, and the people in charge of them are often entrenched in established routines. For them, attempting an AI project provides an immediate ROI simply by surfacing all their process weaknesses at once.

The beauty and opportunity for the smaller operator, however, lie in their lack of digital process maturity. They are in a prime position to benefit from AI automation without needing a massive systems overhaul. It is a great moment in history for the small, nimble, and ambitious company. For the first time ever, they don’t need to hire to scale; they need to invest in digital operational efficiency, with AI as the core lever in their arsenal.

The Human Touch: AI's Most Valuable Partner
 

This is not to say that talent will no longer be a competitive advantage. A successful travel company, especially in the African safari space, relies heavily on its people to design experiences and build trust with clients. As we've stated before, we believe the human touch will only increase in value as AI automates the manual admin of travel consulting. The talent with the most emotional intelligence and first-hand product knowledge will thrive in this new era—albeit their role will be different from what it is today.

In our work with companies of all sizes, we have found that the questions an executive asks are a clear indicator of their future. Some ask, "How can we best use AI to provide a superior customer experience?" Others state, "AI will never replace travel consulting; our customers want to speak to a human." The latter is not a question but a statement, often driven by fear or ignorance. While these concerns have some validity, if you've seen what we've seen in the AI space, we can assure you: no one, aside from perhaps plumbers, should rest easy about AI impacting their work in meaningful ways.

The Path Forward: Win, Stagnate, or Disappear
 

We are confident in our prediction: in the next five years, up to 50% of travel companies could become insolvent. Conversely, those that strategically build AI into their entire operation will capture more market share than ever before.

Our basis for this is rooted in two fundamental principles. First, businesses that prioritise improving their customer experience consistently outperform those that don't. Second, businesses that prioritise improving their employee experience—an often untapped benefit of AI automation—also consistently outperform their peers.

The travel companies that find the perfect sweet spot between AI and human expertise will win bigger than ever before. Those that try to automate everything will not be sustainable. And the travel companies that do nothing risk becoming obsolete.

African travel is at an AI inflection point. Operators who pair strategic clarity with disciplined experimentation will grow faster with leaner teams; those who delay will see margins erode and customers drift. The technology and talent to build the future of AI-powered travel are already here in Africa—we know, because we work with them every day.

The only question is: what question will you ask first?